Sunday, March 22, 2009

How Gold Could Soar to $5,000...etc... an Ounce!

(excerpt from "The Money Map Report" letter edifying Peter Schiff's argument that the bull-run in gold is just starting)
  • The Money Map Report is a Membership Subscription service researching Stocks, Options and other investment advice.
  • Peter Schiff is the author of Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse.

In the 1920s, the Dow Index was 20 times higher than the price of gold.

When the Great Depression hit, gold soared and the Dow sank until the Dow was at 36 and gold was selling for $36 an ounce -- a 1-to-1 ratio.

In 1980, after the huge stock downturn in the 1970s, both the Dow and gold were once again trading at 1-to-1 levels -- the Dow at 850 and gold at $850 an ounce.

Today, the Dow is coming off its worst month since the 1920s, and has shed 35% so far.

Gold, meanwhile, is on the tear.

Schiff sees the 1-to-1 ratio returning, meaning that gold would be trading at around $12,000 an ounce relative to curent stock prices...

And even if the Dow tanks to 5,000, gold would rise to $5,000!

In fact, if the Dow goes to 36,000 as one recent best-selling book prognosticates, gold would sell for $36,000 an ounce!

The bottom line is plain: gold's bull-run is barely getting started...

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MY COMMENT:
Although, I cannot fathom Gold ever going to 36,000 an ounce any time near our lifetimes, I do have to admit that that is a strong argument for the continued bullish run for Gold. I do believe that history tends to repeat itself although it is never a guarantee. If historically gold HAS been at the same levels as the Dow, I feel that it further supports my belief that gold will hit $1,500 per ounce and eventually $3,000 an ounce.

Regardless of the case, I still maintain that having an asset class of metals and other precious commodities ranging 10%-20% of your portfolio to be ideal (see my other blogs on this).

Should Gold ever get to that point, if you continue the "Asset Re-Balancing" strategy, if Gold were to hit 90% of 5,000 an ounce, you would likely have already sold 90% of your Gold holdings and still maintained a 10%-20% total holdings in gold/metals.